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Treasury Yields Fall

Published January 17, 2025

U.S. Treasury yields fell midweek as inflation reports revealed consumer prices increased in December. Yields trended lower toward the end of the week as the latest employment data showed the labor market remains resilient.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the cost of dozens of everyday consumer goods, increased 0.4% in December, surpassing economists’ forecast of 0.3% for the month. The CPI year-over-year came in at 2.9%, in line with economists’ projections.

“Today’s CPI may help the Fed feel a little more dovish. It will not change expectations for a pause later this month, but it should curb some of the talk about the Fed potentially raising rates,” said chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Ellen Zentner. “And judging by the market’s initial response, investors appeared to feel a sense of relief after a few months of stickier inflation readings.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of January 13 at 4.77% and traded as low as 4.59% on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.95% and traded as low as 4.83% on Thursday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment increased by 14,000 to 217,000 for the week ending January 11. Continuing unemployment claims decreased by 18,000, reaching 1.86 million.

"The initial jobless claims were more than expected, so that signals some weakening in the labor market," said chief operating officer at Allegiance Gold, Alex Ebkarian.

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 1/13 at 4.63%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.86%.